Monday, June 10, 2019

Trump's Wrong And Improper Foreign Policy

This post is in Draft mode.

Middle East - US-Iran Conflict

Timeline
[reference: US-Iran relation by Wikipedia]
  • 1953 - Obama Administration: see reference
  • 7/20/15 The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as Iran Nuclear Deal was endorsed by UN Resolution 2231
  • 4/15/18 US intended to brand the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), Iranian parliament responded by ratifying a motion designating "all legal and real persons and troops of the United States and its allies operating in the West Asian region" terrorists
  • 5/8/18 Trump withdrew US from Iran Nuclear Deal, announcing he would reimpose economic sanctions on Iran in November.
  • 4/8/19 United States designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
  • 11/30/19 Belgium, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden join the INSTEX
  • 12/10/19 UN Secretary General releases the report on implementation of Security Council Resolution 2231,
  • Trump's 'Maximum Pressure Campaign' on Iran
    • 11/5/18 This round of sanctions on Iran after withdrawal from the JCPOA, targeting Iran's banking, oil, shipping and ship-building sectors.
    • 5/8/19 The United States announced new sanctions targeting Iran's industrial metal exports. 
    • 6/23/19: Trump announced new sanctions against the Iranian and IRGC leadership. after Iron shot a US surveillance drone on 6/20/19. 
    • 7/1/19 The day Iran announced it breached 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67
    • 7/31/19 The United States sanctions Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif for acting on behalf of the Supreme Leader. On the same day Trump issued a 90 day sanction waiver  that that allow Russia, China and European countries to continue civilian nonproliferation projects with Iran. 
    • 9/3/19  Treasury sanctions the Iran Space Agency and its affiliated research institutes under an executive order directed at proliferators of weapons of mass destruction.
    • 9/4/19 Treasury sanctions a shipping network linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods Force and Hezbollah, condemning Iran for its “provocative actions to destabilize the region and the world.”
    • 9/23/19 Trump delivers a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York and threatens to continue the maximum pressure sanctions campaign on Iran if its “menacing behavior” continues.
    • 10/31/19 U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Asset Control issues new sanctions against Iran under Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act (IFCA). On the same day Trump issued a 90 day renewal of sanction waiver on certain nuclear cooperation projects in Iran
    • 11/719: U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo issues a press statement condemning Iran’s “latest nuclear escalations,”  and calling on the international community to increase pressure on Iran.
  • Iran's Nuclear Program Expansion Under 'Maximum Pressure Campaign' (refer to this reference - Timeline of Nuclear Diplomacy With Iran from 'Arm Control Association')
    • 5/8/19 Iran announces that it will no longer be bound by stockpiles limitations in the JCPOA if the other parties to the agreement do not deliver on sanctions relief. 
    • 5/20/19 Iran announced it will quadruple uranium at Natanz and says it will soon surpass the 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67 percent set by the deal. 
    • 6/17/19 Iran announced it will breach the 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67 percent within 10 days. 
    • 7/1/19 Iran announced that it breached the 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67 percent which was confirmed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). EU and European parties of the JCPOA expressed 'regret' and their considered measures. Trump announced the continuation of the 'Maximum Pressure Campaign'
    • 7/7/19 Iran foreign minister tweeted that Iran’s breaches of the JCPOA are “remedial” and in response to U.S. “economic terrorism.” Iran shares its new uranium plans with the IAEA, indicating that the level of the UF6 product is up to 5% Uranium–235 at Natanz plant. On 7/8/19, Iran informed the IAEA that based on the operator’s assessment, the current level of the UF6 product is about 4.5%. which was verified by the agency. Trump warns “Iran better be careful.”
    • 8/30/19 The IAEA confirmed that Iran continues to exceed the 300 kilogram stockpile limit on uranium after a G-7 summit (8/26/19) during which timer French President Macron offered a  $15 billion credit line to Tehran in exchange for its return to compliance with the JCPOA. 
    • 9/5/19 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announces a third breach of the JCPOA, stating “all of our commitments for research and development under the JCPOA will be completely removed by Friday,”, immediately followed Trump's 9/3/19 and  9/4/19 sanction announcement. 
    • 9/7/19 Iran told the IAEA that it plans to install and test additional advanced centrifuges with natural uranium at the Natanz plant. The Agency verified installation of 22 IR-4, one IR-5, and 33 IR-6 centrifuges. Iran announced that technicians have introduced UF6 to cascades of 20 IR-4 and 20 IR-6 centrifuges, exceeding the limit set by the terms of the JCPOA at that time; and Iran may soon withdraw uranium from its advanced centrifuges and add it to the stockpile of low uranium in breach of the JCPOA.
    • 9/8/19 Iran notified the IAEA of its intention to reinstall equipment needed for additional centrifuge cascades in its pilot plant at Natanz. 
    • 9/23/19  - 9/26/19 Iran began constructing centrifuge rotor tubes using carbon fiber material not subject to continuous IAEA surveillance. Iran alerts the IAEA of four additional cascades being configured at the Natanz. The IAEA confirms that the centrifuge cascades already installed at Natanz “[are] accumulating, or have been prepared to accumulate uranium.” The IAEA also verifies that Iran continues to install additional cascades at Natanz.. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom warn Tehran that a fourth violation of the JCPOA will prompt a special dispute mechanism.
    • 10/8/19 Iran announced that it will increase its uranium capacity using 30 IR-6 centrifuges. Iranian President announced at a press conference that Iran will soon begin operating an IR-9 centrifuge.
    • 11/4/19 Iran announced that it is operating 60 IR-6 centrifuges, is working on uranium to 4.5% Uranium-235 and that its low enriched uranium stockpile totals over 500 kilograms, breaching the 3.67% cap and 300kg stockpile limit designated by the JCPOA.
    • 11/6/19 Iran announced that of the 1,044 IR-1 centrifuges at Fordow, 696 machines will be configured into four cascades and used to uranium up to 5% Uranium-235. The other 348 centrifuges will be used for production of stable isotopes. Iranian newspapers report the transfer of 2,000 kg of uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) to the Fordow facility.
    • 11/10/19: Iranian officials announce that Iran has taken a step on construction of the planned nuclear reactor and begun pouring concrete for the unit at Bushehr. Officials add that 4.5% Uranium-235 may be used to fuel the reactor. On 11/11/19 France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union issue a joint statement warning to Iran.
    • 11/11/19 The IAEA also confirms installation and testing of a variety of advanced centrifuges, including of an IR-8, an IR-s, and an IR-9 centrifuge to be used for accumulation. The IAEA further reports that Iran has begun feeding uranium into cascades of IR-1 centrifuges at the Fordow facility.
    • 11/18/19 The IAEA verifies that Iran’s heavy water stockpile has reached 131.5 metric tons, exceeding the 130 metric ton limit designated by the JCPOA. On the same day, United States announced it will no longer waive sanctions related to Iran’s Fordow facility and the existing waiver will terminate 12/15/19
    • 11//19 The U.S. Department of Defense discovered a cache of weapons on a ship in the Arabian Sea , including advanced missile components which appeared to be of Iranian origin and were being transferred in violation of Resolution 2231.
    • 1/5/19 Iran announced that it will no longer adhere to JCPOA restrictions and that Iran will abandon the “last operational restriction on the number of centrifuges.” and that Iran’s nuclear program going forward will be based on “technical needs”, shortly after US killed Iranian Major General Soleimani. 1/6/19 E3 (France, Germany, and Britain) released a joint statement condemning Iran’s fifth breach and urging Iran to “reverse all measures inconsistent with the JCPOA.” On 1/13/19 The E3 triggered the deal’s dispute resolution mechanism which China and Russia objected. However, the E3 reminded “our 3 countries are not joining a campaign to implement maximum pressure against Iran.”
    • 1/20/19 Iran will withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if Iran is referred to the Security Council through the dispute resolution mechanism triggered by E3.
  • The Recent Escalation In Tension As a Result of Trump's 'Maximum Pressure Campaign'
    • 4/22/19 US decided to stop the sanctions exemptions for major oil importers from Iran. The waiver expired in May.
    • 5/5/19 U.S. deployed more military assets to the Persian Gulf region after receiving intelligence reports of an alleged "campaign" by Iran and its "proxies" to threaten U.S. forces and Strait of Hormuz oil shipping. U.S. was deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and four B-52 bombers to the Middle East in the Arabian Sea, outside the Persian Gulf
    • 5/8/19 Iran announced that it would reduce its commitment to the JCPOA nuclear deal. United States Air Forces Central Command announced that F-15C Eagle fighter jets were re-positioned within the region to "defend U.S. forces and interests in the region.
    • 5/10/19 U.S. deployed the Marine transport ship USS Arlington and a Patriot SAM battery to the Middle East in response to "heightened Iranian readiness to conduct offensive operations."
    • 5/12/19:  May Gulf of Oman incident. Saudi Arabian Aramco registered oil tankers, a Norwegian registered oil tanker, and an Emirati registered bunkering ship were attacked and damaged. An international investigation probe stated "strong indications that attacks were part of a sophisticated and coordinated operation carried out with significant operational capacity." without naming any suspected perpetrator. U.S. officials suspected Iran of being behind the attack.
    • 5/13/19  Houthi rebels in Yemen carried out multiple drone attacks on a Saudi oil pipeline deep in Saudi territory. The U.S. stated that it believed Iran sponsored the attack. 
    • 5/19/19 a rocket exploded inside the heavily fortified Green Zone sector of Baghdad, landing less than a mile from the U.S. Embassy. US alleged that it was Iranian proxies in Iraq that fired rockets into Baghdad's Green Zone. In response 5/23/19, U.S. deployed 1,500 additional troops to the Persian Gulf region as a "protective" measure against Iran
    • 6/13/19  June Gulf of Oman incident: The oil tanker - Kokuka Courageous, flagged in Panama and operated by a company based in Japan, and another oil tanker - Front Altair, flagged in Marshall Islands and operated by a company based in Norway, were attacked by limpet mines or flying objects. United States blamed Iran for the attacks. Iran denied the accusation. In response to the incident, the United States announced on 6/17/19 the deployment of 1,000 additional troops to the Middle East. 
    • 6/20/19: Iran shot the U.S. surveillance drone. Iran claimed the drone was in Iranian airspace. The United States said the drone was in international airspace. Iran called the shoot a "clear message" that 'though Iran was not seeking war, Iran was "completely ready" for it'. Trump had ordered a retaliatory military strike on Iran  but withdrew his decision minutes before the operation began. On 6/22/19, Trump approved cyber attacks that disabled IRGC computer systems used to control rocket and missile
    • 6/23/19:  Trump announced new sanctions against the Iranian and IRGC leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei and his office. Khamenei was added to Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)'s SDN list. The sanctions will block "billions" in assets. Iran said that the new U.S. sanctions prompted a "permanent closure" of their diplomatic ties. U.S. continued unabated to deploy military assets to the region, including the he first ever deployment of F-22s Raptor.
    • 7/18/19 The alleged American jamming of Iranian drone. Iran denied any of the country's drones had been brought down.
    • 9/13/19 A drone and cruise missile strike damages a Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia. On 9/16/19 Trump Administration blamed Iran for the strike after U.S. intelligence findings implicate that on 9/18/19 Officials in Saudi Arabia claim Iran carried out the strike. 9/20/19 United States deploys additional troops to Saudi Arabia in response to the Aramco attack. The U.S. Treasury imposes new sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran, the National Development Fund of Iran, and the Etemad Tejarate Pars Co., an Iranian company implicated in concealing the military’s financial transactions. 9/23/19 UK, France, and Germany release a statement condemning Iran for the strike.
    • 11/15/19:  Iran gasoline price protests - Iranian authorities raised gasoline prices for civilians and imposed strict rationing rules which led to an outbreak of violent protests across the country because of deteriorating economic conditions partly due to the U.S. sanctions
    • 12//19 A rocket attack on the K1 military base in Iraq killed a U.S. civilian contractor and wounded several others. U.S. officials stated that there was an involvement of Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed Iraqi Shi'ite militia group. On 12/29/19, U.S. conducted airstrikes against Kata'ib Hezbollah in Iraq and Syria in retaliation for the death of the U.S. contractor. In response, Iranian-backed militia groups stormed the US Embassy in Baghdad on 12/31/19. 
    • 1/3/20 US attacked and killed Major General Qasem Soleimani, who led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds. This killing steeply escalated the decades-old tensions between US and Iran. In the aftermath of Soleimani's killing, the U.S. announced to move over 3,000 additional troops to the Middle East. 
    • On 1/7/20,  Iran's Parliament unanimously passed a bill naming all branches of the US Armed Forces and employees of The Pentagon "terrorists".  At approximately 5:30 pm (EST), Iran carried out "Operation Martyr Soleimani", launching 12-15 missiles[338] to strike multiple US targets located throughout Iran & Iraq, including Al-Assad Airbase and Erbil. No casualties were reported


Trump's Withdrawal of US From Iran Nuclear Deal

Trump's 'Maximum Pressure Campaign' And Iran' Breach of JCPOA


Maximum Pressure Campaign Iran Breach of Nuclear Deal Other Parties of the Nuclear Deal
5/8/18 Trump withdrew US from Iran Nuclear Deal, announcing he would reimpose economic sanctions on Iran in November.
11/5/18 This round of sanctions on Iran after withdrawal from the JCPOA, targeting Iran's banking, oil, shipping and ship-building sectors, re-designated entities removed from the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) list under the JCPOA. In addition, United States designates an additional 300 new entities.
5/8/19 The United States announced new sanctions targeting Iran's industrial metal exports, the same day Iran announced that it will no longer commit to the terms in the JCPOA. 5/8/19 Iran announces that it will no longer be bound by stockpiles limitations in the JCPOA if the other parties to the agreement do not deliver on sanctions relief.

5/20/19 Iran announced it will quadruple uranium at Natanz and says it will soon surpass the 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67 percent set by the deal.

EU, Germany, France, UK responded in a joint statement - urging Iran to continue to meet its commitments under the JCPOA and rejecting "any ultimatums".
6/23/19: Trump announced new sanctions against the Iranian and IRGC leadership, including Supreme Leader Khamenei and his office after Iron shot a US surveillance drone on 6/20/19. Khamenei was added to Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC)'s SDN list. 6/17/19 Iran announced it will breach the 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67 percent within 10 days.


6/30/19 Despite US sanction, JCPOA's Joint Commission met in Vienna. European states issue a statement reiterating their support for the JCPOA and their intention to participate in INSTEX. - a financial office that Europe set up to try to continue doing at least a little business with Iran despite U.S. sanctions. There has been positive progress on the conversion of the Arak and Fordow facilities.
The day (7/1/19) Iran announced it breached 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67, White House issues a statement saying that "maximum pressure on the Iranian regime will continue until its leaders alter their course of action"7/1/19 Iran announced that it breached the 300 kg limit on uranium gas to 3.67 percent which was confirmed by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). EU and European parties of the JCPOA expressed 'regret' and their considered measures.

7/7/19 Iran foreign minister tweeted that Iran’s breaches of the JCPOA are “remedial” and in response to U.S. “economic terrorism.” Iran shares its new uranium plans with the IAEA, indicating that the level of the UF6 product is up to 5% Uranium–235 at Natanz plant. On 7/8/19, Iran informed the IAEA that based on the operator’s assessment, the current level of the UF6 product is about 4.5%. which was verified by the agency. Trump warns “Iran better be careful.”
7/31/19 The United States sanctions Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif for acting on behalf of the Supreme Leader. On the same day Trump issued a 90 day sanction waiver that that allow Russia, China and European countries to continue civilian nonproliferation projects with Iran. 8/30/19 The IAEA confirmed that Iran continues to exceed the 300 kilogram stockpile limit on uranium after a G-7 summit (8/26/19) during which timer French President Macron offered a $15 billion credit line to Tehran in exchange for its return to compliance with the JCPOA.
9/3/19 Treasury sanctions the Iran Space Agency and its affiliated research institutes under an executive order directed at proliferators of weapons of mass destruction.

9/4/19 Treasury sanctions a shipping network linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods Force and Hezbollah, condemning Iran for its “provocative actions to destabilize the region and the world.”
9/5/19 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announces a third breach of the JCPOA, stating “all of our commitments for research and development under the JCPOA will be completely removed by Friday,”

9/7/19 Iran told the IAEA that it plans to install and test additional advanced centrifuges with natural uranium at the Natanz plant. The Agency verified installation of 22 IR-4, one IR-5, and 33 IR-6 centrifuges. Iran announced that technicians have introduced UF6 to cascades of 20 IR-4 and 20 IR-6 centrifuges, exceeding the limit set by the terms of the JCPOA at that time; and Iran may soon withdraw uranium from its advanced centrifuges and add it to the stockpile of low uranium in breach of the JCPOA.

9/8/19 Iran notified the IAEA of its intention to reinstall equipment needed for additional centrifuge cascades in its pilot plant at Natanz.
9/23/19 Trump delivers a speech at the United Nations General Assembly in New York and threatens to continue the maximum pressure sanctions campaign on Iran if its “menacing behavior” continues. 9/23/19 - 9/26/19 Iran began constructing centrifuge rotor tubes using carbon fiber material not subject to continuous IAEA surveillance. Iran alerts the IAEA of four additional cascades being configured at the Natanz. The IAEA confirms that the centrifuge cascades already installed at Natanz “[are] accumulating, or have been prepared to accumulate uranium.” The IAEA also verifies that Iran continues to install additional cascades at Natanz. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom warn Tehran that a fourth violation of the JCPOA will prompt a special dispute mechanism.

10/8/19 Iran announced that it will increase its uranium capacity using 30 IR-6 centrifuges. Iranian President announced at a press conference that Iran will soon begin operating an IR-9 centrifuge.

10/31/19 U.S. Treasury Office of Foreign Asset Control issues new sanctions against Iran under Iran Freedom and Counter-Proliferation Act (IFCA). On the same day Trump issued a 90 day renewal of sanction waiver on certain nuclear cooperation projects in Iran 11/4/19 Iran announced that it is operating 60 IR-6 centrifuges, is working on uranium to 4.5% Uranium-235 and that its low enriched uranium stockpile totals over 500 kilograms, breaching the 3.67% cap and 300 kg stockpile limit designated by the JCPOA.
11/7/19: U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo issues a press statement condemning Iran’s “latest nuclear escalations,” and calling on the international community to increase pressure on Iran. 11/6/19 Iran announced that of the 1,044 IR-1 centrifuges at Fordow, 696 machines will be configured into four cascades and used to uranium up to 5% Uranium-235. The other 348 centrifuges will be used for production of stable isotopes. Iranian newspapers report the transfer of 2,000 kg of uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) to the Fordow facility.
11/10/19: Iranian officials announce that Iran has taken a step on construction of the planned nuclear reactor and begun pouring concrete for the unit at Bushehr. Officials add that 4.5% Uranium-235 may be used to fuel the reactor. On 11/11/19 France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the European Union issue a joint statement warning to Iran.

The Recent US - Iran Escalation In Tension

US-Iran relations have become increasingly tense since Donald Trump pulled out of the landmark nuclear deal (JCPOA) to curb Tehran’s nuclear capability in exchange for limited sanctions relief. US in April (4/18/19) designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard corps a “foreign terrorist organisation” and announced to stop the renewal of sanction waivers for countries wishing to purchase Iranian oil and run cooperation projects. Tensions between Iran and the United States escalated in May last year after US deployed more military assets to the Persian Gulf region because of the alleged "campaign" by Iran and its "proxies" to threaten U.S. forces and Strait of Hormuz oil shipping.


Middle East - Israel and Palestine

Timeline
  • 12/23/16 Israel’s Settlements Have No Legal Validity, Constitute Flagrant Violation of International Law, UN Security Council Reaffirms
  • 12/6/17 Trump announced the United States recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered the planning of the relocation of the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
  • 12/x/17 Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas cut ties with the Trump administration after United States recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Israel.
  • 3/26/18 Trump formally recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights – occupied by Israel in 1967 and, in violation of international law, unilaterally annexed in 1981.
  • 5/13/18 US officially moved the Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem which Israel unilaterally annexed in 1967 and which the international community considers unlawfully occupied.
  • 8/31/18 US plans to end all support for UN agency that aids Palestinian refugees. 
  • 1/31/19 US stops all aid to Palestinians in West Bank and Gaza. More than $60m in annual funds for the Palestinian security services was stopped. Palestinian Authority (PA) had sent a letter to the US state department asking them to stop funding because of fear of lawsuits after the passage of ATCA.
  • 3/4/19 US Closed Jerusalem Consulate That Gave Palestinians A Link To Washington. The consulate's work is being folded into the new U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem
  • 3/1/19- 12/30/19  Israel’s political limbo
    • 4/9/19 election
    • 9/17/19 election
    • 12/11/19 the last of a series of set to allow for the formation of a new government after a September election, passed unmet
    • 3/1/20 next election tentative date
  • 9/10/19 U.S. closed Palestinian Diplomatic Mission (Delegation) in Washington Over ‘Refusal to Engage With Peace Efforts’
  • 11/18/19 Breaking with decades of policy, State of Secretary announced that Israeli settlements no longer considered illegal in dramatic shift, marking rejection of UN resolution that settlements on the West Bank are a ‘flagrant violation’ of international law. 
  • 11/20/19 Israeli settlements remain ‘flagrant violation’ of international law, the UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process spelled out to the Security Council

Kusher's Middle East Peace Plan

Timeline
  • 6/22/19 the economic portion of the plan, titled "Peace to Prosperity" was released.
  • 6/26/19 Bahrain peace conference - the so called “Peace to Prosperity” workshop was held
  • 9/5/19 - 10/31/19 Top designer of the peace plan Jason Greenblatt announced his resignation and he was replaced by Avi Berkowitz on 9/8/19, Jason Greenblatt left his post on 10/31/19. The special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, would broaden his responsibilities to include Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The Trump administration’s $50 billion Middle East economic plan calls for creation of a global investment fund to lift the Palestinian and neighboring Arab state economies. One proposal is for the construction of a $5 billion transportation corridor to connect the West Bank and Gaza. More than half of the $50 billion would be spent in the economically troubled Palestinian territories over 10 years while the rest would be split between Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan. Some of the projects would be in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula, where investments could benefit Palestinians living in adjacent Gaza, a crowded and impoverished coastal enclave. An Israeli cabinet minister welcomed the plan.

Palestinians reject Kushner 'economy first' approach to Mideast peace (Reuter 6/22/19). Senior Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) official Hanan Ashrawi said Kushner’s plans were “all abstract promises” and said only a political solution would solve the conflict. Hamas, the Islamist militant group that controls Gaza, was more blunt, saying: “Palestine isn’t for sale”. Ashrawi told Reuter through the phone that the Trump administration’s stance was an “entirely wrong approach”, adding: “They can end the occupation, which is the most basic requirement for prosperity. There can be no prosperity under occupation.”

Hamas official Ismail Rudwan told Reuters: “We reject the ‘deal of the century’ and all its dimensions, the economic, the political and the security dimensions,” “The issue of our Palestinian people is a nationalistic issue, it is the issue of a people who are seeking to be free from occupation. Palestine isn’t for sale, and it is not an issue for bargaining. Palestine is a sacred land and there is no option for the occupation except to leave,” he said.

At the Bahrain conference, which is intended to build support for the economic portion of the so-called “deal of the century", zero Israeli or Palestinian officials are participating. Palestinian leaders have boycotted any and all involvement with the Trump administration’s peace efforts in protest of the administration’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem and cut funding for the United Nations agency that supports Palestinian refugees. Since the Palestinians decided to skip the conference, the administration evidently decided not to invite the Israeli government either. Other Arab countries, such as Jordan and Egypt, sent representatives, but some of the attendees were midlevel folks,

Critics have slammed the proposal, referring it as a “real estate brochure” — complete with glossy promotional photos from Palestinian aid programs that the Trump administration has cut. The plan lacks any details about a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Kushner who has no experience in government decided to put out the economic half of the plan first, saying the economic piece was “less controversial.” But without that political half, the economic proposal is essentially meaningless. It’s hard to imagine anyone investing billions of dollars in big infrastructure and transportation projects for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza while the Israeli government continues to annex more and more territory in the former and regularly bombs the latter. (commented by Vox 6/26/19)

The ‘ultimate deal’ for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was initially due to come out after Israeli elections on 9/17/19. Jason Greenblatt, the Trump administration’s special envoy for Middle East peace, top designer on the “ultimate deal” for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict announced the resignation on 9/5/19 but planned to stay on until the ultimate deal was unveiled, according to Gaurdian 9/5/19 report - Kushner's Middle East peace plan drifts further astray as envoy resigns. Greenblatt was a real estate lawyer with no experience in diplomacy. Ashrawi said Greenblatt had spent his time in the role as “an apologist for the most extreme, hardline government in the history of Israel." However, after the vote outcome was inconclusive, the plan’s unveiling was postponed until a government was formed in Israel. Greenblatt left the post in October (10/31/19) and was replaced with Avi Berkowitz. “Greenblatt’s leaving may have to do with the dim prospects of the so-called peace plan,” said Khaled Elgindy, a fellow at the Brookings Institution “What I do know is that it won’t make any difference to what is not really a plan – let’s call it a vision – because there is no chance of it going anywhere.”

Avi Berkowitz a 30 year-old Kushner aide, who graduated from law school in 2016 and has no Middle East experience, would take over some of Greenblatt’s role, while the state department’s special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, would broaden his responsibilities to include Israel and the Palestinian territories.

According to New York Times (11/9/19) report titled as - Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan Faces Dimmer Prospects Than Ever , Israel’s political limbo and a new United States policy toward settlements have further diminished hopes that the plan will be the basis for an Israeli-Palestinian deal. The prospects for a Trump administration's Middle East peace deal have been receding for months due to a protracted political stalemate in Israel and the refusal by the Palestinians to engage with Washington. But Trump administration's announcement on 11/18/19 that Israeli settlements in West Bank do not violate International Law (i.e. no longer considered illegal in dramatic shift), combined with a monthslong limbo in Israeli politics that requires a new election to resolve, is casting further doubts that a long-awaited proposal from Trump can resolve the 70-year territorial conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

Although Mr. Pompeo said the Trump administration’s view on settlements would make peace easier to achieve, the Palestinians, along with many foreign governments and Israeli politicians, insist the opposite. “Nobody believes this plan is coming,” said Ilan Goldenberg, a top aide to President Barack Obama’s chief Middle East negotiator. Trump officials insist the plan is still coming when White House has held off the plan because of the political limbo in Israeli

BBC 11/19/19 article  - US settlement move reduces chances of Israeli-Palestinian peace deal reported the similar doomed prospects. Previous US administrations opposed settlement construction as an obstacle to peace, and tried to limit it to varying degrees. But planning and building have accelerated under the Trump administration, according to the Israeli anti-settlement monitoring group Peace Now. The possibility is that this change could green-light steps towards annexation of Palestinian territory.

Netanyahu has promised this year to annex Israeli settlements in the West Bank something that the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu – currently fighting for his political survival and facing possible indictment in multiple criminal cases – has pledged to undertake if re-elected. If Israel annexed them, it would encircle any future Palestinian state in the West Bank. In step with the Israeli right’s annexationist policies, the Trump peace plan – “the Deal of the Century” – is all but guaranteed to be a gift to the territorial-maximalist right.

The international community has focused for more than decades on working towards a Palestine state solution. The European Union and United Nations have been warning that Jewish settlements are eroding that possibility. Now that a main player has withdrawn opposition, the way forward is even less clear. America's Arab allies also find it increasingly difficult to support President Trump's peace efforts, as they are reluctant to be associated with US decisions considered so pro-Israel. Such clear differences no doubt influenced the cautious response from even the most powerful pro-Israel lobby group in Washington, Aipac, which tweeted that it did not take a position on settlements.

Palestinian militants had called for resisting the occupation many Palestinians seem to have adopted a war of position. However, the division and schism between schism Palestinian leadership (PLO president Mahmoud Abbas, his Fatah movement in the West Bank, and the Islamist Hamas movement in Gaza) has prevented the development of an effective strategy to confront the Trump administration's radical pro-Israel policy that were flagrant violations of international law, UN resolutions and historical Israeli-Palestine peace accord.

Although little is known for certain about the Kushner-Greenblatt plan, Trump officials have made it clear it will not commit to supporting the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state alongside Israel, which was the policy of previous US administrations. Kushner, Greenblatt and the current US ambassador to Israel, David Friedman have all been supportive of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and few expect the plan to put pressure on Israel to withdraw them.

“The [peace] plan is doomed. It is not going anywhere, but it will be a marker in the sand,” said Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “The Israile-Palestine state solution is doomed and this peace plan will seal it. It will create a new normal in the conflict." “They see it more as a vision than as a plan,” said David Makovsky, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy who worked as a Middle East peace negotiator in the Obama administration. The Trump administration hopes to establish “a historic baseline, so if they’re re-elected they can use it as a basis for future negotiations.”

In Journalist Vicky Ward's new book 'Kushner Inc' contained alleged detail of the Kushner's peace plan based on his intertiew of the people who saw the draft,  the alleged plan was criticized as ridiculous and preposterous, although Jason Greenbatt denied the plan was the same as what the book's alleged detail, according to a report 3/19/19 by intelligencer. Although it was unclear how much of the alleged detail describled in the book were related to the yet unrelased or unreleasble 'ultimate plan' - the political portion, the book depicted a doomed prospesct of the plan consistent with the theme that critics of the economic portion of the plan had analyzed.





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