Economy:
- boasted that “unemployment is at its lowest level in 16 years.”
- misleadingly claimed that “we have more people working in the United States today than ever before.”
- wrongly claimed companies are “moving back, creating job growth of which our country has not seen in a very long time.”
- boasted that “the stock market is at an all-time high” since Election Day
Anti-terrorism:
- U.S. “has achieved more against ISIS in the last eight months than it has in many, many years combined.”
Humanitarianism:
- United States “continues to lead the world in humanitarian assistance.”
Defense spending:
- “we will be spending almost $700 billion on our military and defense.”
| Economy:
- Trump is taking credit for a trend that long before his presidency.
- the correct metric should be employment-to-population ratio and it isn’t higher “than ever before
- the job gains have been fewer under Trump than they were during the same time frame in each of the previous four years.
- boasted that “the stock market is at an all-time high” since Election Day
Anti-terrorism:
- ISIS territory has been reclaimed at a faster rate under Trump, but more territory was reclaimed from
Humanitarianism:
- That’s true by volume, but not as a percentage of gross national income, or GNI
Defense spending:
- Senate passed a nearly $700 billion defense authorization bill, but it must be reconciled with a House version
| 9/19/17 UN speech
Factchecker:
FactCheck.org
Summary: Trump made misleading boasts about his record on the economy and foreign issues. reprised misleading talking points on everything from job growth to defense spending.
[transcript] |
Economy:
- "Just as I promised the American people from this podium 11 months ago, we enacted the biggest tax cuts and reform in American history,”
- "African American unemployment stands at the lowest rate ever recorded. And Hispanic American unemployment has also reached the lowest levels in history”
- U.S. is “now an exporter of energy to the world”
- “Since we passed tax cuts, roughly 3 million workers have already gotten tax cut bonuses – many of them thousands of dollars per worker,”
- “After years and years of stagnation, we are finally seeing rising wages”
- Trump said that his administration had “ended the war on beautiful, clean coal.”
Anti-terrorism - The coalition to defeat Islamic State has liberated very close to 100% of the territory held by the militants in Iraq and Syria, and in other locations as well.
| Economy:
- tax cuts as a percentage of GDP would be the 12th largest since 1918. When adjusting for inflation, the Trump tax cuts would be the fourth largest since 1940
- Trump is but not right on the rate for Latinos. It was 4.9% in December compared to record low 4.8%
- Trump has said this before, and exactly what he means is unclear, but nearly all the possible meanings are untrue. (see reference for detail)
- The number of workers appears to be correct but most are not getting thousands of dollars apiece.
- Wage gains, in fact, have barely budged for the typical American worker.
- There hasn’t ever been much of a war on clean coal. Most of the coal plants Trump has tried to boost are hardly clean compared with other forms of energy. In fact, they create some of the most polluting power there is. The so-called clean coal is a marketing label for a very expensive technique to reduce pollution from coal. But its economics have yet to pencil out.
Anti-terrorism - But experts warn that as many as 10,000 Islamic State loyalists could remain in Iraq and Syria. Islamic State also retains active branches elsewhere in the Middle East, Africa and other parts of Asia
| 1/30/18 (last year's) SOTU (State Of The Union) speech
Factchecker:
Los Angeles Times
NPR
CBS
Summary: Trump boasted about the records he has achieved and has amassed an unprecedented number of inaccurate statements.
[transcript] |
| | 6/8/18 G-7 Summit |
NATO Defense Spending: - "Prior to last year where I attended my first meeting, it was going down, the amount of money being spent by countries was going down and down very substantially, and now it's going up very substantially."
- "And, frankly, many countries [in NATO] owe us a tremendous amount of money for many years back, where they’re delinquent, as far as I’m concerned, because the United States has had to pay for them. So if you go back 10 or 20 years, you’ll just add it all up. It’s massive amounts of money is owed."
- The commitments are made at a higher level than they’ve ever been made. And the money, it will be paid out faster — far faster. You know, ….. It wasn’t something that they were committed to. Now it’s a commitment. There’s a big difference — And that’s why so many people weren’t reaching it or hitting it. ….. Now it’s a commitment, a real commitment.
- I think NATO's a very important -- probably the greatest ever done. But the United States was paying for anywhere from 70 to 90 percent of it, depending on the way you calculate.
- The United States "just had the largest military budget ever, $700 billion, approved."
- "On top of that, Germany is just paying a little bit over 1 percent, whereas the United States, in actual numbers, is paying more than 4% of GDP"
Economy - international trade: - "Our farmers have been shut out of the European Union."
On Iraq War - Trump repeated the claim that he opposed the Iraq war before it started. “I was very much against that war. I never thought it was a good thing. But that’s another deck of cards that I inherited, and we’ll do the best we can with it.”
Other: - “One of the states we won, Wisconsin — I didn’t even realize this until fairly recently — that was the one state that Ronald Reagan didn’t win when he ran the board his second time, He didn’t win Wisconsin, and we won Wisconsin.”
| NATO Defense Spending: - Total Defense spending by the European members and Canada has gone up. [for statistics and chart, see the reference]
- NATO countries do not owe the United States money. the commitment threshold as a percentage of GDP is a guideline not a mandate. It is a goal to work toward it.
- Trump repeatedly claimed that “everyone has agreed to substantially up their commitment.” But leaders of several European nations later said there were no formal agreements to increase spending beyond previously set goals, and none was provided by NATO.
- The U.S. share of the commonly funded NATO budget is just over 22%. The U.S. share of total defense spending by all NATO members was an estimated 67% (inflation-adjusted)
- Trump is wrong to say that total defense spending amounts to the "largest military budget ever."When adjusted for inflation, Tbudget authorities for national defense totaled greater than $700 billion in 5 consecutive prior years (see chart data in this reference)
- US defense budget was below 4% of GDP. Defense budget for recent years were about 3.1% of GDP. (see chart data in this reference)
Economy - international trade:
- EU made up the fifth-largest export market for U.S. agricultural goods
On Iraq War: - There’s no evidence he publicly opposed the war before it started, though there is some evidence he supported it.
Other:
- In fact, Reagan won Wisconsin in 1980 and again in 1984, and pretty handily at that.
| 7/12/18 NATO Summit - Press Conference
Factchecker:
Politifact
Guardian
Factcheck.org
Summary:
Trump made several false statements about the defense spending of the member countries. Trump repeated several other inaccurate claims that had been written about before. (Factcheck.org)
Trump shrouded Brussels in his personal fog of war as he brought confusion and half-truths to the NATO summit, before claiming an imaginary victory over America’s allies in a conflict of his own making. (The Guardian)
[transcript] |
| | 9//18 UN speech
Factchecker:
New York Times |
Economy: - We have created 5.3 million new jobs and importantly added 600,000 new manufacturing jobs.
- Wages are rising at the fastest pace in decades.
- Nearly 5 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps
- The U.S. economy is growing almost twice as fast today as when I took office, and we are considered far and away the hottest economy anywhere in the world — not even close
- Unemployment has reached the lowest rate in half a century. African American, Hispanic American and Asian American unemployment have all reached their lowest levels ever recorded
- More people are working now than at any time in our history — 157 million
- All Americans can be proud that we have more women in the workforce than ever before.
- We virtually ended the estate, or death, tax on small businesses, ranchers and family farms
- We have unleashed a revolution in American energy — the United States is now the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world
- And now, for the first time in 65 years, we are a net exporter of energy
- Therefore, we recently imposed tariffs on $250 billion dollars of Chinese goods — and now our Treasury is receiving billions of dollars
- Our new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement — or USMCA — will replace NAFTA and deliver for American workers: bringing back our manufacturing jobs, expanding American agriculture, protecting intellectual property, and ensuring that more cars are proudly stamped with the four beautiful words: Made in the USA
Border Wall Funding:
- One in three women is sexually assaulted on the long journey north
- The lawless state of our southern border is a threat to the safety, security and financial well-being of all Americans. We have a moral duty to create an immigration system that protects the lives and jobs of our citizens.
- Meanwhile, working-class Americans are left to pay the price for mass illegal migration — reduced jobs, lower wages, overburdened schools, hospitals so crowded you can’t get in, increased crime, and a depleted social safety net
- The border city of El Paso, Texas, used to have extremely high rates of violent crime — one of the highest in the country, and considered one of our nation’s most dangerous cities. Now, with a powerful barrier in place, El Paso is one of our safest cities
- Tens of thousands of innocent Americans are killed by lethal drugs that cross our border and flood into our cities, including meth, heroin, cocaine and fentanyl.
- The savage gang, MS-13, now operates in at least 20 different American states, and they almost all come through our southern border. . . . We are removing these gang members by the thousands, but until we secure our border they’re going to keep streaming back in.
- In the last two years, our brave ICE officers made 266,000 arrests of criminal aliens, including those charged or convicted of nearly 100,000 assaults, 30,000 sex crimes and 4,000 killings
- My administration has sent to Congress a common-sense proposal to end the crisis on our southern Border. It includes humanitarian assistance, more law enforcement, drug detection at our ports, closing loopholes that enable child smuggling, and plans for a new physical barrier, or wall, to secure the vast areas between our ports of entry
- San Diego used to have the most illegal border crossings in the country. In response, a strong security wall was put in place. This powerful barrier almost completely ended illegal crossings.
Health Care: - “The next major priority for me, and for all of us, should be to lower the cost of health care and prescription drugs — and to protect patients with preexisting conditions.”
- Already, as a result of my administration’s efforts, in 2018 drug prices experienced their single largest decline in 46 years.
- Lawmakers in New York cheered with delight upon the passage of legislation that would allow a baby to be ripped from the mother’s womb moments before birth. . . . And then, we had the case of the governor of Virginia where he stated he would execute a baby after birth.
Foreign Policy:
- For years, the United States was being treated very unfairly by NATO — but now we have secured a $100 billion increase in defense spending from NATO allies.
- To ensure this corrupt dictatorship never acquires nuclear weapons, I withdrew the United States from the disastrous Iran nuclear deal
- If I had not been elected president of the United States, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with North Korea.
- We have spent more than $7 trillion dollars in the Middle East
Anti-Terrorism:
- When I took office, ISIS controlled more than 20,000 square miles in Iraq and Syria. Today, we have liberated virtually all of that territory from the grip of these bloodthirsty killers.
| Economy: - Trump often inflates the number of jobs created by counting from Election Day, rather than when he took the oath of office. [There have been almost 4.9 million jobs created since January Trump took office, of which 436,000 are manufacturing jobs.]
- But adjusted for inflation, wages for all workers grew 1.3 percent from 12/1/17 to 12/1/18, making the increase only the largest since August in Election year.
- About 3.6 million people (not nearly 5 million) have stopped receiving food stamps since 1/31/17.
- Trump accurately says the most recent numbers, showing 3.4% GDP growth, are roughly twice the 1.8% from his first quarter in office. Trump has seen growth top 4% in one quarter, but Obama topped it three times during his term and in one quarter topped 5%
- This is all in the past. the unemployment rate increased to 4% in January. The unemployment rate in December was no longer at a 49-year low, but an 18-year low. The unemployment rate for African American, Hispanic American and Asian American all rose in January as compared to December last year.
- This is meaningless. The U.S. population is growing, so of course more people would be employed.
- This statistic mainly reflects the increasing size of the U.S. population. The more relevant statistic — the labor participation rate of women — is not at a record high.
- Reducing the estate tax primarily benefits the wealthy. The estate tax rarely falls on farms or small businesses
- The notion that “a revolution” in energy began under the Trump administration is wrong. The United States has led the world in natural gas production since 2009. Crude oil production has been increasing rapidly since 2010. In September 2018, the United States passed both Russia and Saudi Arabia to become the largest global crude oil producer
- The United States is not yet a net energy exporter
- A study estimated that 115 percent of the money raised from tariffs is being used by the administration to aid farmers hurt by the retaliatory tariffs, so it’s a net loser.
- USMCA is not a total trade revolution, as Trump promised. Economists and auto experts think USMCA is going to cause car prices in the United States to rise and the selection to go down. Some elements of the deal were borrowed from TPP.
Border Wall Funding:
- The statistic is derived from a report that cannot necessarily be considered representative of all migrant women. Sampling was not random in that study.
- There is no new security crisis at the border.
- Apprehensions of people trying to cross the southern border peaked most recently at 1.6 million in 2000 and have been in decline since, falling to just under 400,000 in fiscal 2018.
- The consensus among economic research studies is that the impact of immigration is primarily a net positive for the U.S. economy and to workers overall, especially over the long term. Illegal immigration tends to affect less-educated and low-skilled American workers the most. Almost all research shows legal and illegal immigrants are less likely to commit crimes than the native-born population.
- El Paso had the third-lowest violent crime rate among 35 U.S. cities with a population over 500,000 in the three consecutive years before construction of a 57-mile-long fence started in mid-2008 and completed in mid-2009.
- But a wall would not necessarily stanch the flow, as much of these drugs are smuggled through legal ports of entry or underground tunnels. The death toll from drug abuse is mostly attributable to prescription and illicit drug overdoses, which claim more lives than cocaine and heroin overdoses combined.
- Trump mentions 20 different states, but experts say MS-13 is concentrated in three areas: Los Angeles, Long Island and the Washington area.
- These numbers for arrests and charges are apples and oranges. By switching from one to the other, Trump confuses the issue and exaggerates the criminality. In many cases, the people arrested face multiple counts. Furthermore, not all charges result in convictions.
- Trump’s proposal would not provide humanitarian assistance to Central American children. Trump’s proposal would bar all minors from being able to present asylum claims inside USA and would limit asylum grants to minors from these three countries, provided they apply while remaining in another country.
- The San Diego fence, by itself, “did not have a discernible impact on the influx of unauthorized aliens coming across the border. But the apprehension numbers are not just down in fenced parts of the border — they’re down everywhere, including in border sections without these barriers.
Health Care: - Trump administration has refused to defend the Affordable Care Act against a lawsuit that would end protection for patients with preexisting conditions. When the district court ruled against the law, Trump celebrated the ruling.
- The decline is the first time in 46 years in the December-to-December time frame, but there have been other 12-month periods with declines that is not the first time in 46 years, most recently in 2013.
- The legislation in New York would not have “allowed a baby to be ripped from the mother’s womb moments before birth.” unless the patient is not before point of “viability or there is an absence of fetal viability, or the abortion is necessary to protect the patient’s life or health.”
Foreign Policy: - The effort to push NATO members to spend more on defense began well before Trump took office. NATO allies had spent (secured) $41 billion increase toward defense since Trump took office. NATO Secretary General said NATO allies will have added $100 billion extra toward defense by the end of 2020.
- But Supporters of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) disputed that and say the JCPOA at least buys time, subjecting Iran to strong constraints on its nuclear activities for 10 to 25 years. Without the JCPOA — and if it changed its current policy and chose to do so — Iran could hasten development of nuclear weapons on an even shorter timeline than the one Trump found unacceptable.
- Trump exaggerates the possibility of war, which had been heightened by his own harsh rhetoric. Intelligence community assessment and satellite imagery indicates North Korea continues to pursue a nuclear program.
- Trump acted as if the money has been spent, but he is referring to a Brown University study that included estimates of future obligations, spanning almost 5 decades since 2001 war in Afghanistan
Anti-Terrorism: - Independent reports estimated that 20,000 to 30,000 ISIS militants may remain in Iraq and Syria. The group was far weaker a decade ago when U.S. forces last withdrew from Iraq. The group is far larger now than before the last withdrawal (from Iraq). Obama set up virtually all the structure that did the fighting under Trump. Under Obama, all Iraqi cities (with the exception of the western half of Mosul) held by ISIS were retaken by end of his term (more than the 20,000 square miles)
| This year's SOTU (State Of The Union) speech
Factchecker:
Washington Post
FactCheck.org
New York Times
Summary: Trump’s State of the Union speech once again was chock-full of stretched facts and dubious figures. Many of these claims have been fact-checked repeatedly, yet he persists in using them. Here, in the order in which he made them, are nearly 30 statements by Trump.
[transcript] |
| | 8/26/19 G-7 Summit (France)
Factchecker:
New York Times
|
NATO Defense Spending:
- The amount other NATO member countries spent on defense “was really heading in the wrong direction — three years ago was heading down.” “a lot” of countries are “delinquent” in their payments. defense spending for NATO members “was going down for close to 20 years. If you look at a chart, it was like a rollercoaster down, nothing up. And that was going on for a long time.” - remarks with Macron and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg
- South Korea Defense Sharing Contribution: Trump understated South Korea’s prior contributions to the shared cost of the U.S. military presence in South Korea by several hundred million dollars. ".....really less than $500 million, which has been that number for many, many years — decades. And I got $500 million more a year.
- "I’ve asked Japan. I said to Prime Minister Abe...... We’re paying a lot of money. You’re a wealthy nation. And we’re, you know, paying for your military, essentially. You have to help us out.” And he’s doing — he’s going to do a lot. They’re all going to do a lot. But they were never asked. Now they’re being asked."
Economy - international trade:
- We won, in the World Trade Organization, we won seven and a half billion dollars. We never used to win before me, because, before me, the United States was a sucker for all of these different organizations.” — remarks with NATO Secretary-General
- Trump, speaking about claims that Britain’s state-funded health care system would be part of future U.K.-U.S. trade talks: “I don’t even know where that rumor started. We have absolutely nothing to do with it and we wouldn’t want to. If you handed it to us on a silver platter, we want nothing to do with it.” — remarks with Jens Stoltenberg.
- U.S. trade deficit with the European Union: “the deficit for many, many years, has been astronomical … [a]nd I’m changing that, and I’m changing it fairly rapidly.” - remarks with NATO Secretary-General. “I came into a position where the European Union was making anywhere from $100 to $150 billion in deficits to the United States, [W]e have a very unfair trade situation where the U.S. loses a lot of money for many, many years with the European Union — billions and billions of dollars. I mean, to be specific, over $150 billion a year.” - remarks with Macron
Economy - others :
- Trump, on protecting oilfields in Syria: “We have the oil, and we can do with the oil what we want.” — remarks with Stoltenberg
Foreign Policy:
- [M]y relationship with Kim Jong Un is really good, but that doesn’t mean he won’t abide by the agreement we signed. You have to understand. You have to go and look at the first agreement that we signed. It said he will denuclearize. That’s what it said. I hope he lives up to the agreement, but we’re going to find out.
Impeachment: - “For the hearings, we don’t get a lawyer.” — remarks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
- “We don’t get any witnesses. ...This is a fix. ...I want them to testify, but I want them to testify in the Senate where they’ll get a fair trial.” — remarks with Trudeau.
Anti-Terrorism:
- “We have a tremendous amount of captured fighters, ISIS fighters over in Syria. And...but many are from France, many are from Germany. Many are from U.K. They are mostly from Europe.” — remarks with French President Emmanuel Macron.
- "We’ve defeated the ISIS caliphate. Nobody thought we could do that so quickly. I did it very quickly. When I came in, it was virtually 100%. And I knocked it down to zero."
| NATO Defense Spending:
- NATO Europe and Canada had increased defense spending 3 years ago. Defense spending for NATO countries, other than the United States, did not “going down for close to 20 years" countries make their own decisions on what percentage of their gross domestic product to spend on their own defense. They don’t owe (delinquent) NATO money if they spend less than other countries choose to do.
- Before the current one-year agreement effective in April that Korea contributed $873 million, there were a 5-year agreement which South Korea paid “approximately $830 million per year.” Under the five-year deal, South Korea still contributed much more than $500 million a year.
- Trump falsely implied that Japan isn’t sharing the cost of the U.S. military presence on Japanese territory. Japan is helping out the U.S. financially when it comes to its own defense. Under a Special Measures Agreement that that has been in force since Election year and is generally renegotiated every five years, Japan contributed almost equal portion of the cost: $1.7-$2.1 billion per year vs $1.9 - $2.5 billion per year.
Economy - international trade:
- Trump is wildly wrong to state that the U.S. never won victories in disputes taken to the trade organization before him. The U.S. has always had a high success rate when it pursues cases at the WTO. Trump was referring to a WTO decision in October siding with the U.S. on imposing tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European imports annually. The value of the tariffs on those imports is much less than $7.5 billion.
- Trump is referring to his own past statements as a “rumor.” Asked about the National Health Service (NHS) during a visit to Britain in June, he said “when you’re dealing in trade, everything’s on the table. So, NHS or anything else.” NHS could in fact be a bargaining chip in U.S.-U.K. trade talks. (AP news)
- In fact, U.S. trade deficit with the European Union under Trump has gone up not down. When Trump took office, the U.S. had a total trade deficit with the EU of $93 billion – not $100 - $150 billion — and it has gone up under Trump. The deficit has exceeded $100 billion only once in the last 10 years under other Administration.
Economy - others:
- The oil in Syria belongs to Syria and the U.S. can’t do anything it wants with it
Foreign Policy:
- Trump misstated what North Korean leader Kim Jong Un agreed to do about his country’s nuclear weapons program after their first summit 6/12/18. The “agreement,” does not say that “he will denuclearize.” "North Korea “commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.” It is a statement of goals, not an agreement. The statement contains no agreement on a denuclearization plan
Impeachment: - House Judiciary Committee has invited Trump and his lawyers to appear if he wishes, but so far the White House has refused.
- Trump is incorrect that the Intelligence Committee hearings only brought forward witnesses hand-picked by the Democratic majority on the panel. Several were invited at the request of Republicans on the committee.
Anti-Terrorism:
- Trump clashed with Macron. Macron: There are “very large number of fighters ... ISIS fighters coming from Syria, from Iraq and the region.” Those from Europe are “a tiny minority of the overall problem.” AP News: Trump is incorrect to say the Islamic State fighters who were captured and held by the Kurds in Syria are mostly from Europe. Of the more than 12,000 IS fighters in custody in Kurdish areas, Most of them — about 10,000 — are natives of Syria or Iraq. Of those from outside the region of the conflict, some were from Europe, some were from other parts of the world.
- About 50% of ISIS’ territory had been regained under Obama.
| 12/3/19 NATO Summit
Factchecker:
AP Factcheck
FactCheck.org
CNN
Summary:
Trump wholly misrepresented the U.S. record on international trade disputes, incorrectly accused House Democrats of denying him lawyers in impeachment proceedings and dismissed as a mysterious “rumor” his own statement from months ago about Britain’s health system. (AP News)
Trump repeated a slew of false claims to an international audience at the annual NATO summit (FactCheck.org)
|
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